PHI 2130 methodist university What is the primary purpose of Bayes Theorem Discussion

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  1. Question 1

    1. What is the primary purpose of Bayes’ Theorem?

    3.7 points

    Question 2

    1. The probability of a hypothesis before new data has come in is:

    3.7 points

    Question 3

    1. Posterior probability is:

    3.7 points

    Question 4

    1. The conditional probability rule is : P(A given B) = the probability of A and B divided by the probability of B. If this formula were re-written in terms of hypothesis (H) and evidence (E), how would it be worded?

    3.7 points

    Question 5

    1. Studies in animals have revealed that when comparing the efficacy of Drug A and Drug B in treating high cholesterol, they both are equally effective (50-50) in lowering cholesterol levels. Stage 2 testing for efficacy (that is, effectiveness in lowering cholesterol) was done. In humans, it turned out that while Drug A lowered cholesterol in 90% of patients, Drug B lowered it about the same level, but in 98% of patients. Therefore, you conclude that Drug B is more effective in lowering cholesterol than drug A. What is the prior probability of the effectiveness of Drug A vs. Drug B?

      A.

      B.

      C.

      D.

    3.7 points

    Question 6

    1. It is possible for both prior and posterior probability have approximately the same value?

    3.7 points

    Question 7

    1. No one ever uses educated guesses in estimating prior probability; such is always based on exact prior data found in records.

    3.7 points

    Question 8

    1. Before Einstein’s solar eclipse experiment, the chances of his general theory of relativity being true were about 50%. After the experiment supported Einstein, the probability of general relativity being correct rose considerably–let’s say to 90%. Which kind of probability has the highest percentage?

    Question 10

    1. Bayes’ Theorem can only be applied to:

    3.7 points

    Question 11

    1. Mary is studying human behavior regarding honesty. In previous studies, 72% of people returned a dropped wallet with $100 of cash or above in it. She forms a hypothesis that about 72%, plus or minus 5%, would return a wallet she plants that has $100 cash as well as identification and a phone number to call in case the wallet is lost. It turns out that 32% of the students at her university returned the wallet.How would you classify the statement, “32% of students at Mary’s university returned a dropped wallet to its rightful “owner.”

    3.7 points

    Question 12

    1. Tom knows that the deer population in a state park has increased 3% a year the past ten years. He predicts that the new data will again show that the deer population increased 3% the previous year. How would classify the statement “The new data will probably reveal that the deer population will have increased approximately 3% last year”?

    3.7 points

    Question 13

    1. At the time Galileo did his scientific work, the evidence for the sun-centered solar system was 50%, and it was also 50% for an earth-centered solar system. Galileo predicted that if his hypothesis of the sun-centered solar system was correct, it would be possible to calcuate the distance to stars other than the sun by using stellar parallax. This involves measuring the diameter of the earth’s orbit around the sun and triangulating to calculate the distance to stars. While they could not be detected in Galileo’s Day, in 1838 stellar parallax was finally detected. What did that discovery do to the odds of the sun-centered solar system being correct.

    3.7 points

    Question 14

    1. In the late 1950s and early 1960s, doctors developed the hypothesis that cutting off the blood supply to the internal mammary artery would divert that blood to the coronary arteries and ease angina pain. A statistically significant number of patients reported vast improvement in their symptoms after the surgery, such as less or no chest pain on exertion. Did this new data raise or lower the posterior probability of the doctors’ hypothesis?

    3.7 points

    Question 15

    1. The same setup as the last question–doctors proposed blocking the internal mammary artery would ease angina pain and studies reported large numbers of patients saying it did. However, in a later study doctors blocked off the internal mammary artery in half the patients and performed a sham surgery on the rest in which they cut into the patient but didn’t block off the artery. Patients in both groups reported the same amount of improvement. Do these results raise or lower the posterior probability of the internal mammary artery surgery improving angina hypothesis?

    3.7 points

    Question 16

    1. Same scenario as the previous two questions–do these results suggest that at one time data might raise the posterior probability of a hypothesis, while later data can lower it (yes or no)?

    3.7 points

    Question 17

    1. Once the new data is factored in to calculate the posterior probability, then that probability can become the prior probability when retesting that same hypothesis.

    Question 19

    1. An argument is composed of a premise or premisses and a conclusion. These must all be forms of what?

    1 points

    Question 20

    1. “If the premisses are true, the conclusion MUST be true” is the criterion for what kind of argument?

      A.

      B.

      C.

      D.

    1 points

    Question 21

    1. Proportional syllogisms and arguments by analogy are what kind of argument?

    1 points

    Question 22

    1. A classic example of induction by confirmation in the history of science (the one on which the textbook focuses) is:

    1 points

    Question 23

    1. The classic example in the history of science of discomfirmation of a hypothesis mentioned in the text is:

    1 points

    Question 24

    1. The classic example of a crucial experiment mentioned in the textbook is:

    1 points

    Question 25

    1. Is a car engine’s destruction a necessary or sufficient condition for its being unable to run?

    1 points

    Question 26

    1. The existence of the element oxygen is a ___ for water existing (necessary or sufficient)

    1 points

    Question 27

    1. Being a male sibling is a ___ condition for being a brother.

    1 points

    Question 28

    1. When the probable cause of a phenomenon is always present when the phenomenon is present and always absent when the phenomenon is absent, this is Mill’s Method of __.

    1 points

    Question 29

    1. When the cause and effect vary together, this is Mill’s method of:

    1 points

    Question 30

    1. The entire set of individuals a scientist is studying is called:

    1 points

    Question 31

    1. The general characteristic used to describe a population is called:

    1 points

    Question 32

    1. When there is no difference between proportions between variables, the variables are:

    1 points

    Question 33

    1. If the proportion of individuals is greater among set A than set B, this means that A is ____ with B.

    1 points

    Question 34

    1. The term that refers to the likelihood of something happening is called:

    1 points

    Question 35

    1. Probabilities always range betweeen __.

    1 points

    Question 36

    1. The probability of a contradiction is __.

    1 points

    Question 37

    1. The general conjunction rule is used with:

    1 points

    Question 38

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